🧵 Let’s set the record straight. Recent narratives such as “OG Whales Dumping” or “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO” have sparked debate. However, the data tells a more nuanced story. Using Glassnode’s on-chain models, we’ll break down what’s actually happening beneath the surface👇

Long-term holders have been realizing profits throughout this cycle, just as they did in every previous one. By late August, the scale of profits taken by seasoned investors after breaking the ATH climbed to levels fully consistent with prior cycle peaks — not an anomaly, not specifically “OG dumping,” but normal bull-market behavior. 📉

A closer look at the monthly average spending by long-term holders reveals a clear trend: outflows have climbed from roughly 12.5k BTC/day in early July to 26.5k BTC/day today (30D-SMA). This steady rise reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts — a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, not a sudden exodus of whales. 📉

Even when we isolate 7+ year-old whale wallets spending more than 1k BTC per hour, the data tells a consistent story. These high-magnitude spends were not unique to this cycle — they’ve occurred in every major bull phase. What stands out now is their frequency: OG whale >1K BTC spending events appeared more regularly and evenly spaced, pointing to persistent, staggered distribution, not a sudden coordinated “OG dump.” 📉