$TON Today it appeared in the trending projects, haha, this TG-based token, haha, probably many people don’t have it. TON will unlock 635 million tokens in October, which may lead to a significant increase in supply and price volatility. @aixbt_agent believes that Pudgy Penguins selling $390,000 worth of NFT stickers in 60 seconds proves that Telegram's 900 million users love to buy anything that can double (like a $40 sticker pack, treated as a token for trading). AlphaTon Capital has hoarded $30 million worth of TON, betting on this demand floor. Ultimately, October will be a key test—can social commerce (users buying digital goods) beat token inflation? Overall, it feels like they are cheering for TON, emphasizing that the consumption frenzy in the Telegram ecosystem can counteract the selling pressure from the unlock. I think institutions and users will work together to create a "demand floor," preventing TON from crashing. But it also subtly reveals risks: if users don’t buy in, then it’s game over. With a bit of a gambler's mentality, it’s suitable for alpha hunters in the crypto circle to watch. Let me give you a few successful examples: 01 Previously, Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) sold NFT stickers on Telegram and it was very popular. 02 In the summer, when the Bored Stickers series launched, it sold for over a million dollars, with users treating them as digital collectibles, and prices doubled several times. 03 Pudgy Penguins relied on Telegram chat groups and mini-programs for rapid dissemination, with users rushing to buy, proving that the "social + NFT" model can instantly create demand. 04 DOGS OG stickers also sold for $1.77 million in a short time, mainly relying on Telegram's user base of over 9 million, with everyone thinking they could double their investment. I checked reliable sources for you and distilled these points based on crypto data sites like CoinMarketCap, CryptoRank, and news reports: 01 TON will unlock 635 million tokens in October: exaggerated. In reality, the TON Believers Fund will release about 37 million TON monthly starting from October 12, 2025 (total locked 131.7 million, linear release over 36 periods). It’s not a one-time release of 635 million, which may refer to its total circulation, but it’s inaccurate. 02 Pudgy Penguins sold $390,000 worth of NFT stickers in 60 seconds: no exact evidence found. 03 Pudgy Penguins' NFT stickers are indeed hot sellers on Telegram, with total sales exceeding a million dollars (for example, initial sales of $1.9 million in the summer), but there is no specific record of "$390,000 in 60 seconds." The total NFT sales exceeding $390 million is true, but that’s cumulative, not for a single sticker. As long as that total is correct, it’s fine. 04 AlphaTon Capital hoarding $30 million in TON: true! Multiple news sources confirm this. 05 Telegram's 900 million users buying $40 sticker packs: the user base is outdated, now it’s over 1 billion monthly active users, as of March 2025. The $40 sticker pack price is indeed true, and users do treat them as tokens for speculation, but not everyone buys; more are crypto enthusiasts. Overall: the core logic of social commerce hedging against unlock makes sense, but the digital details are a bit off; I judge it’s more of a reminder and FOMO sentiment. The blockchain project backed by Telegram was originally intended to be a star in payment and gaming ecosystems, but recently the price has been a bit sluggish, currently around $2.68. So can the "shopping spree" of Telegram users save the day after the TON unlock? TON has a significant unlock in October, with the Believers Fund releasing 37 million TON monthly, totaling 131 million released linearly, plus other factors possibly reaching 12% of circulation, which can push up supply and lower prices. Some analysts predict a short-term drop to $2.61, but optimistically to $3.61-$12.25. Can Telegram users' "buy buy buy" offset this? Generally, it’s believed to be possible! Although the unlock is a "time bomb" for TON, Telegram acts like an "infinite wallet," and users' enthusiasm for buying can turn risks into opportunities. In the past, prices dropped during unlocks but rebounded thanks to ecosystem support. Looking ahead, if Web3 features explode in the second half of 2025, TON could stabilize at $3-$4 or even higher. The crypto market is unpredictable; if users don’t buy in, it’s GG. This type of asset is suitable for players focused on the ecosystem; don’t go all in in the short term. Recently, due to the downturn in the four major kings' market, there are many investment targets, so I won’t focus too much on TON in the short term. This is not financial advice, just sharing risk investment, that’s all, Do Your Own Research.